Halal: Investigate electoral fraud in Maguindanao

ASIDE from a few sentences on election reform, poll fraud was not tackled during President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s state of the nation address. Yet Halalang Marangal is adamantly keeping the issue alive.

Halal’s fourth audit report concludes that “there were statistical and circumstantial evidence indicating that the results from Maguindanao were fraudulent, yet these were accepted by the National Board of Canvassers as part of the official results.”

Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri, a Team Unity (TU) candidate, was the “biggest beneficiary” of the Maguindanao CoC fraud, adds Halal, because the statistically improbable results from six Maguindanao municipalities gave him a 19,292 vote-margin over bitter rival Aquilino Pimentel III and propelled him to the winner’s circle.

Halal is calling for a thorough investigation of the Maguindanao election fraud.

Read Halal’s fourth audit report.

Other findings of the 25-page report include the following:

  • Essential information were missing or plain wrong in the election reports of one-third of all the cities and provinces canvassed, indicating laxity bordering on negligence and/or incompetence on the part of Comelec (Commission on Election) officials who prepared, submitted, or accepted those reports.

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Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results – 5

HISTORICALLY, no candidate should be more popular in a province other than his own.

But results for senatorial candidate Juan Miguel Zubiri in the midterm elections show otherwise, following the same pattern as that in 2004 elections where President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo showed herself stronger in Cebu than in her home province Pampanga.

Based on documents from the Commission on Elections (Comelec), Zubiri appeared to be more popular in Maguindanao than in bailiwick Bukidnon. Zubiri’s vote-percentage share in all 22 towns in Maguindanao averages at 95.75 percent.

The results for Zubiri in Maguindanao are so high that in one town, Pandag, Zubiri posted a 100-percent voter-percentage share — of the 3,382 registered voters who actually voted, 3,382 voted for Zubiri. In another town, Datu Abdulah Sangki, 99.76 percent (7,920 of 7,939) of those who trooped to the polls voted for Zubiri.

These results largely differ from that of Bukidnon where even in Zubiri’s hometown, Maramag, only 84 percent of the voters cast their ballots in his favor. His highest based on initial results was seen in Kitaotao, where he got a voter-percentage share of 87.79 percent. (see table)

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Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results – 4

INFORMATION technology expert, NGO activist and Halal secretary general Roberto Verzola is adding his voice to the growing number of naysayers who have questioned the credibility of election results in the Maguindanao provincial certificate of canvass (CoC).

Roberto VerzolaAside from the statistically improbable votes, anomalous voting pattern, and the election results from the town of Pagalungan, Verzola says that the Maguindanao CoC contains some “statistically impossible” numbers when it comes to the ballot fill-up rate.

The ballot fill-up rate corresponds to the number of senators listed on the ballot.

“As you know, the maximum number of senators you can vote for is 12,” says Verzola. “You write anything more than 12, that invalidates the ballot. But in several municipalities, you have (a) fill-up rate of more than 12. These averages are statistically impossible.”

The municipalities of Datu Anggal Midtimbang, Paglat, Ampatuan, South Upi, and Sultan sa Barangis all have fill-up rates above 12, ranging from 12.01 (Paglat) to 13.88 (Datu Anggal Midtimbang). (see table)

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Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results – 3

ELECTION returns from 36 of 55 precincts in Pagalungan town in Maguindanao all the more cast doubt on the credibility of election results as reflected in the provincial certificate of canvass (CoC) heralding an incredible 12-0 sweep of the senatorial contest in favor of administration candidates.

The Pagalungan ERs, mysteriously set aside and left uncanvassed until only last Friday, show that all 37 senatorial bets did garner votes, contrary to the results in the provincial CoC submitted by provincial supervisor Lintang Bedol where 18 candidates received “statistically improbable” zero votes.

As far as voting pattern went, the Pagalungan voting results also more closely reflect the outcome of elections in the five other provinces of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, with Team Unity’s Jamalul Kiram topping the field with 2,732 votes. Kiram also led the senatorial race in Lanao del Sur, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi while placing a strong second in Basilan and Shariff Kabunsuan.

VOTES OBTAINED BY TOP 12 SENATORIAL CANDIDATES IN PAGALUNGAN

CANDIDATE

VOTES OBTAINED

RANK

KIRAM, Jamalul

2,732

1

TRILLANES, Antonio IV

1,911

2

MONTANO, Cesar

1,511

3

ESCUDERO, Francis Joseph

1,448

4

HONASAN, Gregorio

1,370

5

ANGARA, Edgardo

1,267

6

ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel

1,216

7

LACSON, Panfilo

1,214

8

CAYETANO, Alan Peter

1,202

9

PANGILINAN, Francis

1,131

10

AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III

1,067

11

VILLAR, Manuel Jr.

1,081

12

In the Pagalungan tally, TU’s Juan Miguel Zubiri was in seventh place, which is somehow consistent with his showing in the other ARMM provincial results: fourth in Lanao del Sur, fifth in Shariff Kabunsuan, sixth in Sulu, eighth in Basilan, and 11th in Tawi-Tawi. This only serves to further cast the three-term Bukidnon congressman’s first-place finish in the Maguindanao CoC, obtaining almost 100 percent of the votes cast, in a really suspicious light.

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The flight of the ‘pirate of the Caribbean’

PASSENGERS awaiting their flight at the Davao City airport immediately sensed a big shot was nearby: Lawmen in uniform were seen milling around the VIP Lounge. Even airport staff manning the x-ray machines and counters could not help but whisper about the controversial passenger, who was swiftly whisked out of sight into the quiet confines of the VIP lounge. “Si Bedol iyon, ano (That’s Bedol, right)?” they asked each other.

“We received the order (from the Commission on Elections) to arrest Bedol on June 30,” says Chief Inspector Bahnarin Kamaong, head of the Regional Mobile Group (RMG) of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Task Force Bedol was formed the following day, with Kamaong as its deputy chief, and his RMG team as its operating arm.

The arrested Lintang Bedol en route to ManilaTeams were then dispatched to Lanao del Sur, General Santos City, Cotabato City, Cebu City and Davao City, where Bedol was ultimately found. Information was on a “need-to-know” basis. Police officials in the areas involving the search were kept in the dark for as long as possible, until Bedol was found. Indeed, PNP officials from all over Mindanao who were having a training at Camp Catitipan in Davao City that day claimed they knew nothing of the arrest.

When Bedol was found at the Davao Doctor’s Hospital, Kamaong and his team were in Cotabato. Kamaong was instructed to go to Davao City and deliver Bedol to the Comelec office in Manila.

Kamaong says he first saw Bedol shortly before the May 14 elections, when a conference was held to plan for the polls in Parang, Maguindanao. The second time he saw Bedol was when the Comelec official was at the Davao hospital around nine in the morning of July 2. He dismisses reports he was “handpicked” by Bedol to escort him to Manila. “Hindi niya hiningi iyon. Walang dahilan para hingin niya iyon (He didn’t ask for it. He has no reason to demand for it),” he says.

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Were the 2007 elections less violent?

THERE were fewer cases of electoral violence during this year’s election period compared to previous polls. That is according to the Philippine National Police (PNP) which recently released its final report on election-related violent incidents (ERVIs). An election monitoring group, however, disputes this claim, saying that poll violence was more widespread than had actually been reported.

From January 14 to June 13, 2007, the PNP’s Directorate for Operations recorded 229 ERVIs, fewer by 20 and 40 cases than the 2004 and 2001 polls, respectively. The incidents, despite an enforced gun ban, resulted in 121 deaths, as well as injuries to 176 more people. There were also two cases of missing individuals.

TABLE 1: COMPARATIVE STATISTICS
ON ELECTION-RELATED VIOLENT INCIDENTS
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
No. of Cases
229
249
269
267
121
Killed
121
148
111
67
79
Wounded
176
261
293
162
111

Source: Philippine National Police

Majority of those killed were supporters of candidates (49), though the death toll included 26 politicians, 11 candidates, 14 civilians, 20 policemen and a soldier. Candidates’ supporters also topped the list of injured at 62, followed by civilians (54), policemen (34), politicians (17), candidates (7), and soldiers (2).

TABLE 2: COMPARATIVE STATISTICS
ON CANDIDATE/POLITICIAN CASUALTIES
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
Killed
26
40
21
14
9
Wounded
17
18
9
13
1

Source: Philippine National Police

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Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results – 2

(UPDATED) If only for the statistically improbable zero votes received by 18 senatorial candidates, including those from the opposition who enjoy high levels of public awareness like Panfilo Lacson, Benigno Aquino III and even Alan Peter Cayetano, Maguindanao’s election results ought to be held with much suspicion.

Compared to the poll results from the rest of the provinces in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), the outcome from the province is an anomaly. Why? Because even senatorial race last-placers Ruben Enciso, Eduardo Orpilla, Victor Wood, and Felix Cantal — virtual unknowns except for Wood — all garnered votes in Lanao del Sur, Shariff Kabunsuan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Basilan.

VOTES OBTAINED BY SENATORIAL RACE TAILENDERS IN ARMM
CANDIDATE
LANAO DEL SUR
SHARIFF KABUNSUAN
SULU
TAWI-TAWI
BASILAN
CANTAL, Felix
2,156
1,073
777
859
514
ENCISO, Ruben
2,960
1,023
1,057
921
1,797
ORPILLA, Eduardo
5,802
1,580
1,150
851
871
WOOD, Victor
3,926
1,967
2,018
2,709
1,494

And considering how the rest of Muslim Mindanao voted, Bukidnon Rep. Juan Miguel Zubiri’s emergence as top vote-getter in the Maguindanao polls is also suspect — in the same way that Luis “Chavit” Singson’s 194,242 votes (second to Zubiri’s) are, the former Ilocos Sur governor placing nowhere near the Top 12 in the canvassed results of the five other ARMM provinces.

Though he may be a genuine son of Mindanao, Zubiri wasn’t the top choice of his Muslim brothers and sisters outside of Maguindanao. As voting results clearly showed, it was Team Unity’s Jamalul Kiram who consistently took the top spot, losing out only to Genuine Opposition’s Loren Legarda in Basilan by 94 votes, and to fellow TU candidate Edgardo Angara in Shariff Kabunsuan. Kiram came in third behind Legarda.

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Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results

(UPDATED) As always, the devil is in the numbers.

More than six weeks after the May 14 elections, the controversy surrounding the Maguindanao elections has yet to be resolved. It all started with the supposed 12-0 shutout win of administration candidates in the province. This was followed by news of provincial elections supervisor Lintang Bedol saying that municipal certificates of canvass (MCoCs) were stolen, only to backtrack later by saying they were simply missing. Bedol himself went “missing” twice despite repeated summons from the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

Following the news of allegations of massive cheating in the province, the poll body ordered a recanvass of the results. The special body created to conduct the canvass had to resort to the second and fourth copies of MCoCs. The recanvassing of votes cast in the 22 towns resulted into a total of 195,823 votes for Team Unity candidate Juan Miguel Zubiri, and 67,111 for Genuine Opposition bet Aquilino Pimentel III.

While Pimentel remains ahead of the race, the latest tally today shows that Pimentel now only has a slim lead of 2,700. He earlier had a lead of 4,293; prior to the canvass, Pimentel was leading by 111,000. The results from Basilan, Zamboanga del Sur, Lanao del Sur, and towns Binan, Laguna and Bogo, Cebu will determine the 12th winning senator.

In Maguindanao, a look at the election results there reveals highly improbable figures and surprisingly high voter turnout.

Comparing the results from the “original” provincial certificate of canvass — which was set aside by the national board of canvassers — with the new set of documents shows unusual decreases and increases in the votes for certain senatorial candidates (see table).

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